Yes, The Bitcoin Bull Is Dead (For Now)

Obviously, my paid subscribers got a lot of fore-warning about this. I sold out of my ETH position for 17.7x on Sunday. I figured I’d link my Quora post detailing my way forward. For those of you who have been following for a while, this will come as absolutely no surprise.

May 19was checking for an update yesterday didn’t get any.Reply
Sebastian Purcell, PhDMay 19AUTHORI update for Weekly subscribers on Mondays and my lessons come out on Sundays. My Daily Bubble subscribers get an update every day.I am active on Quora, though, so if you follow me there, you’ll get pretty fast updates.I’m also working on a system to update everyone faster–honestly, it’s looking like the best option for this is a Discord server.I want to give my Daily Subscribers nearly real-time data–with minutes delay, not hours.I want to give all my paying subscribers access to a monthly webinar and my commentary on developments in the market through audio clips. All of that is easily done on Discord. So, all that is in the works.Finally, Temitayo, if you were supposed to get a Daily Update but didn’t, send me an email: admin (at) sebastianpurcell (dot) com.Reply
Fra7567May 19Can you provide details on phase #2 and when it starts?Reply
Sebastian Purcell, PhDMay 19AUTHORThere are three paths forward: (1) this turns out to be the one time in Bitcoin’s history where it had a 50%+ decline and the bull run isn’t dead –testing the meaning of “bull run” — or (2) there isn’t a tradable bounce, or (3) there is a tradable bounce. I obviously think that (1) isn’t going to happen, but it doesn’t really matter. I trade by algorithms and the core of those for this industry are simple. If $BTC crosses back above its SMA 200, I’ll buy in 20%. If it crosses the SMA 160, I’ll buy in another 60%. If it crosses in the SMA 50, I’ll buy in the final 20%. In brief, I’ll just scale back in. For phase 2 – I’m looking at points (2) and (3), which I’ll address together.It might turn out that Bitcoin doesn’t bounce back in a tradable way. What I am looking for is extremely bearish sentiment, which would be at least a -40 price rate of change (pROC) using a 21-day time frame. I’d really prefer a -50 pROC. If that happens, I’m going to go all in on the bounce.This is a bounce trade, though, so I’ll be scaling out of it. For an unlevered bounce – I would likely sell at 10%, 20%, and 30% positive. If I’m thinking about cryptominers, like $MARA, then because they’re levered, I’d be looking at 2.5x those numbers.After that, I’ll be looking at reaccumulation, phase 3.

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