After weeks of relentless ascent, Bitcoin’s rally took a breather on Thursday, dipping to just above $101,000 before rebounding above $103,000. This pause coincided with a flurry of U.S. economic data releases that painted a mixed picture of the economy. April retail sales fell short of expectations, and producer prices rose less than forecasted. Meanwhile, jobless claims remained steady, and manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia indicated softening business activity. Despite these signals, traditional markets remained largely unaffected, with the S&P 500 adding 0.4% and the Nasdaq finishing flat.

Altcoins, however, experienced sharper declines. The CoinDesk 20 Index dropped 3%, with tokens like Aptos (APT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Uniswap (UNI) falling between 6% and 7%. Analysts suggest this pullback is a healthy correction within a broader medium-term uptrend. Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler, noted that the shift in sentiment from equity markets has spilled over into riskier assets like Bitcoin. Kirill Kretov, a trading automation expert at CoinPanel, emphasized that price movements below 5% are often just market noise, attributing some of the movement to profit-taking in a market with thin liquidity.

Looking beyond short-term fluctuations, the broader price action remains healthy, with no clear signs of an imminent top. Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, pointed out that Bitcoin has just exited one of its longest periods of below-neutral funding rates, indicating defensive positioning. This pattern resembles the risk-averse behavior observed in late 2023 and 2024, suggesting potential for fresh record highs.

Steno Research attributes the crypto tailwinds to a stealth expansion in private credit, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. Unlike previous bull runs fueled by central bank liquidity injections, this rally is supported by Western bank credit growth—a less visible but significant driver. Forward-looking indicators project improving global financial conditions into the summer months, primarily driven by a weakening U.S. dollar, which has historically led to higher Bitcoin prices. However, the outlook becomes more uncertain in the latter half of July, as the peak in financial easing may not extend beyond August.

In summary, while the crypto market experiences a temporary pullback, underlying factors such as defensive positioning and private credit expansion suggest a resilient foundation for potential growth in the coming months.

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